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NewsAustralian Guineas race preview - Flemington 4 Mar 17
03 March 2017 12:57 PM
It's a tale of two cities this weekend. Flemington was rated a Good 4 on Friday morning and has sunshine forecasted all the way through the weekend while Randwick is on a serious watch from the ATC with 50mm of rain falling in the last 24 hours. It's been raining all week in Sydney and the weather is expected to continue right up until next Thursday. Needless to say Randwick was rated a Heavy 9 this morning and is expected to deteriorate further.
Race seven at Flemington on Saturday is the Group 1 Australian Guineas for three-year-olds run over the mile. It's a race with one clear favourite but still many chances amongst the nineteen listed acceptances which includes three emergencies who are looking for a start.
Expect better than moderate pace in this race with the big field and some noted early speed coming from 4, 7, 15 and 17. Hey Doc was quoted as a $4.20 chance on Friday afternoon in their enhanced odds market with a lot of value in that quote. He will have a fitness edge having his third run back coming off two solid runs where he won his latest comfortably in G3 company. He is as honest as they come and will be very popular with punters at those odds.
Prized Icon was good enough from a tough barrier at Rosehill first-up. His close third to Yankee Rose puts him in the same league as last year's Cox Plate place getters and comes right into contention with a good record at this track and distance.
Attention comes off a great result in the G1 Futurity finishing within a length to Black Heart Bart and just missed against his own age group before that. There's a question mark around the 1600m but he's done enough to be trusted to go the extra distance in this race.
Divine Prophet was okay first-up at weight-for-age after finishing his last campaign with a win in the Caulfield Guineas. Has to be considered with those credentials.
Of the others, Oak Door presents as value at current quotes of $34 coming off an all the way win in the Autumn Stakes. He's an honest colt but needs to step up to the 1600m challenge now.
The longest shot in the race looks massive overs. Not saying it wins but its got to be worth a lazy place bet. Hardham ran a solid sixth 4.1 lengths away, when returning in the G3 CS Hayes. He ran the best final sectionals in that race after going to the back of the field from barrier 14. Extra distance looks ideal and it will be no surprise to see him rattling home for a place. Hardham is currently quoted at $22.50 fixed place odds.
Betting tips
1st Hey Doc goes on top as my bet of the day at $4.20. I don't expect that to hang around for long.
2nd Prized Icon
3rd Oak Door
Check out the insights that we've found about wet tracks at Randwick before you punt on Randwick Guineas day this Saturday.
Mike Steward
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