Franklin suspension tips semi Swans way

03 September 2013 17:28 PM

With confirmation today that Hawks star forward Lance Franklin has accepted the one match ban handed out by the match review committee for his collision with Nick Malceski last weekend, a new complexion has fallen over Friday's semi final clash between last year's Grand Finalists,

AFL Lance Franklin Hawthorn

With Hawthorn still firm favourites at $1.50 with there are enough reasons to suggest that the $2.60 on offer for the Swans is pretty generous. There is no doubt that the Hawks boast one of the best forward lines in the competition with Jarryd Roughead and Jack Gunston ready to pick up the slack in Franklin's absence. The Swans' on the other hand have some serious marking capability with their tall timber Kurt Tippett, Jesse White, Shane Mumford and Mike Pyke proving to be leaders in contested marks in the second half of the 2013 AFL season. Good form continues for the Swan's with Tippett's boot delivering 33 goals from his last ten games.

No Franklin but good depth for the Hawks. Strong contestability and good forward fire power for the Swans - how does it all way up?

It's been a reasonably tight affair when these two teams have met over the past few years. The Hawks lead the last 5 clashes by 3-2. For three of those games there was 2 or less goals the difference in the score. So does Franklin's absence on Friday do enough to tip things in the Swans favour?

Interestingly Hawthorn has won 13 of the 14 games they have played without Franklin over the past three years however none of those were final series games.

Based on last weekend's clash the Swans can draw a lot of promises in a game where Franklin was on the field.

  • Hawthorn trailed by 24 points in the third quarter before coming home with a surge to win by a 12 point margin;
  • the Swans had 6 more inside 50s than Hawthorn, laid 13 more tackles and also won the hit-outs and centre clearances; and

  • all this without 10 of their regular starting line up including Lewis Roberts-Thomson and Lewis Jetta who are expected to make a return this Friday.

Overall a tough one to call but certainly the $1.50 going for the Hawks looks a bit thin when all things are considered. One thing is for sure it will be a cracker of an opening game for the 2013 AFL finals series.