Making the most of Market Movers on the punt
03 September 2015 12:57 PM
Most punters use market movers to get an insight into which horses the smart punters are backing. They are more likely to follow the shortening price rather than back against it. We spoke to Simon this week, a part-time punter, who shared his very different approach for using market movers to find winners in a race.
Simon emailed us some time ago in response to our article about Australia's biggest punters using totalizators to profit from racing. He told us that he knew that the totalizator markets were manipulated for some time and found a way to use that knowledge to profit.
Simon told us that he understands the concept of looking for value (i.e. that is where the odds of a runner are greater than it's actual chance of winning), but like many part-time punters he doesn't have the time to put the work in that is necessary to price a market - a key requirement for success. As a proxy, however, he says the market movers from the totalizators provide him with a good way of finding value runners without having to invest the time and effort.
Betting System Explained
Simon, like many punters does his form the night before race-day using best efforts to assess each runner in at least two major metropolitan race meetings on Wednesdays and Saturdays. He aims to find between 2 to 5 preferred runners in each race.
"Basically, I use my form analysis to identify horses in a race that have a realistic chance of winning. After the form is done my eyes are glued to the movements in the three Totalizator markets."
"If there is a horse that is being backed-in significantly. Say more than 20% of it's odds compared to where it was ten minutes before the advertised race start time, then I assume that it is either true odds or unders. If that horse is in my list of runners to back I scratch it off unless it blows back out to at least the 20% mark. I make my bets 30 seconds before advertised start time using this logic."
Here's a mock-up of Simon's race sheet 30 seconds out from the advertised race start time highlighting movements and horses to back.
Staking his selections
If there are more than two horses that standout when the -30 second mark is reached, Simon uses a staking plan similar to the one we wrote about several months ago. Setting a target profit for the race. The staking calculator directs his outlay on each horse where he is aiming to make fixed odds bets at prices similar to or greater than what they are showing on the Tote he is watching.
The answer to the big question on every punter's lips is how well does it go for him.
"Put it this way. I do a lot better than the average punter and considering the time I put into this, I am getting more value from every hour I put in compared to a lot of professional punters that I know."
If you've got a system or betting approach that you think punters will find interesting. Email us at CustomerService@thegreattipoff.com. If we use it will give you a prize worth $50.
|King of Social Punting|