Turnbull Stakes 2016 race preview

29 September 2016 16:21 PM

It's Footy Finals day in Melbourne on Saturday which means Turnbull Stakes Day takes place on Sunday. Flemington hosts a nine race program full of stakes races and highlighted by the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes run over 2000m.

Melbourne received a few showers during the week and is expecting between 10 - 20 mm before they jump on Sunday which should see track conditions deteriorate.

The Turnbull Stakes has been a great guide for the top three races to follow in the Melbourne Spring Carnival in recent years:

  • Fawkner ran fourth in 2013 and went on to win the Caulfield Cup at his next start.
  • Dear Demi ran eighth in 2013 and ran third in the Caulfield Cup later in the month.
  • Fiorente finished fourth in 2013 and ran third in the WS Cox Plate and then went on to win the Melbourne Cup 10 days later.
  • Green Moon won the Melbourne Cup in 2012 after winning this race in the same year.

 

Betting Odds at Flemington

4. Hartnell has gone to a new level this preparation after learning to settle more in his races. After an honest second behind Winx first-up he has been in another class compared to his rivals. There are a few more with ability in this race but definitely the one to beat.

9. Jameka was very good in the G3 Naturalism winning easily on the post. Meets some tougher opponents here but has plenty of ability.

5. The United States won the G1 Ranvet followed by a second in the G1 Queen Elizabeth in the autumn. Showed lightening speed to fly home at the Valley first-up when caught in a pocket around the turn. Bigger track is a plus here.

13. Raw Impulse was impressive in a Stakes race at Morphettville at his last outing. Significant jump-up in class here.

6. Our Ivanhowe was good enough first-up in the G1 Makybe Diva when he was strong over the last 100m. Finished last prep winning the Doomben Cup over 2000m. Fitter.

1. Preferment hasn't shown us any glimpses of what he is capable of yet this prep. Two average first-up performances which hasn't happened in previous preparations. Prefer to watch him go around here but certainly not ruling him out.

7. Set Square is going better than her form looks this preparation. Jumped from a wide gate at her latest outing and finished well enough. Moonee Valley did her no favours the run before. Ran a length third behind Preferment in this race last year. Will appreciate Flemington.

2. Tarzino hasn't come on this preparation but can't dismiss two Group 1 victories as a three-year-old including the G1 Rosehill Guineas over 2000m.

8. Tally. The class difference showed when he was a competitive second last week in an open handicap race and 8.7 lengths last the run before in the G1 Memsie.

3. Happy Trails showed his characteristic late surge over the mile first-up in the G1 Makybe Diva. Will enjoy the extra ground. Won this race back in 2013.

10. Sofia Rosa will benefit from the extra ground here. She's a back marker who will appreciate any pace on in front.

11. De Little Engine. Prefer in something easier.

12. Second Bullet. His effort in the Naturalism doesn't provide any confidence for this race.

The Verdict

1st Hartnell. Seems to be a far superior horse this preparation. Has some tough opposition but can't go past this bloke and current odds of $2.20 look generous.

2nd The United States

3rd Set Square

One of the best ways to follow smart in this race is to take a Hot Bet and follow the bets of winning punters here.

Mike Steward